🌟WHEN WILL STACK OVERFLOW REACH 10,000,000 USERS?!

1

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Date is estimated (since SEDE doesn't have the eProphet expansion pack yet) -- estimation based on average count of new users per day for the past 30 "full" days, up to midnight of the last day that SEDE data updated. To hell with Y2K.. are you prepared for U10M? ... Also click the GRAPH tab below for a chart showing weekly 'cycle' new-user trends. ... As of when this was written (2018-May-16) the prediction is (2019-Jan-21) eight months from now... although UserID #10000000 was assigned 2018-Jun-27)

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/*  As of:    ...the prediction is:
     2018-May-16   2019-Jan-21   
     2018-Jul-14   2019-Jan-30
     2018-Aug-02   2019-Jan-23
     2018-Sep-10   2019-Feb-08  
   User 10million  2019-Feb-02
     
The 10 millionth active user is User ID# 11005560 who was created Feb 2, 2019.
The prediction was pretty darn close!     
     
     
     
     */

if db_name()<>'StackOverflow' 
  begin
    print 'This query is intended to be run on Stack Overflow!'
    return
  end
  
select 
  cast(creationdate as date) as [Date],
  count(id) as [New Users]
into 
  #dailyNewbies30d
from 
  users
where creationdate --(midnight to midnight)
  between cast(dateadd(d,-30,getdate()) as date)
    and ( select cast(max(creationdate) as date) from users )   
group by 
  cast(creationdate as date)

--TAB #1 : Prediction
select
  format(##UserCountGoal:int?10000000##,'N0') as [User Count Goal],
  format(##UserCountGoal:int?10000000##-(select count(*) from users),'N0') as [Users Needed],
  format((select avg([New Users]) from #dailyNewbies30d),'N0') as [Current New Users / Day],
  (##UserCountGoal:int?10000000##-(select count(*) from users)) 
    / (select avg([New Users]) from #dailyNewbies30d) as [Days 'til Goal],
  format(getdate(),'MMM d, yyyy') as [Today],
  format(dateadd(d,((##UserCountGoal:int?10000000##-(select count(*) from users)) 
    / (select avg([New Users]) from #dailyNewbies30d)),cast(getdate() as date))
    ,'dddd, MMMM d, yyyy') as [Date that user number ##UserCountGoal## will join?]
    
    
--TAB #2 : Count of newbies by day, last 30 days
select * from #dailyNewbies30d order by [Date] desc




--This folling line sets up the user prompt and tooltip:
-- UserCountGoal: What is the goal for number of Stack Overflow Users?

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